![]() The company has partnered with the Black Business Association of Oregon to bring the program to Portland. ![]() The program is tailored towards restaurants owned by women, immigrants, or people of color. A broader market rally suggests the overall economy is recovering.Delivery and takeout app DoorDash has opened applications for its accelerator program, which includes a $20,000 grant, to restaurants in the greater Portland and Denver, Colorado areas. The equal-weighted index is a better indicator of how broad a market rally is than the market-cap-weighted index. cap weight relative performance, each of the past 8 cycles has seen equal weight index relative outperformance at this point this cycle, it has lagged," Wilson wrote. Like Wolfenbarger, Wilson highlighted that market breadth is narrow. Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson also pointed out in a July 10 note that stock market and economic signals show the economy is unlikely to be starting a new cycle at the moment. The revision to our estimate is a reflection of what's already occurred year-to-date rather than a change in view of what's ahead," Kantrowitz said in a note on Thursday. "We still think it's highly likely that the S&P 500 could fall 15%-20% (3800-3600) from current levels as earnings estimates and valuations retreat on a rebound in recession fears. He recently upped his year-end price target from 3,225 to 3,700 given how much stocks have rallied so far this year, but he still expects a recession to come. In terms of big Wall Street names, Piper Sandler's top strategist Michael Kantrowitz is one of the most aligned with Wolfenbarger on where stocks are heading in the coming months. "That suggests the stock market will likely fall to new lows, as typically happens in a recession." What others are saying ![]() Since this has not been happening so far, we continue to view the rally this year as a bear market rally, particularly with a recession looming," Wolfenbarger said in a July 17 note. "Typically in a new bull market, most stocks are rallying to new highs. With the index around 4,540 right now, a drop below 3,577 translates to downside of at least 23%. He thinks the S&P 500 will fall to new lows, below October's level of 3,577. When high inflation creeps into consumers expectations it further fuels higher inflation, in part because people negotiate for higher wages to keep up with rising prices.Īll of this amounts to a bearish outlook for stocks, Wolfenbarger believes. Inflation expectations over the next five to 10 years have begun to come unanchored, climbing to 4.5%, University of Michigan data shows. This means the Fed is going to have to keep policy tighter than some might think in order to crush inflation, and to keep it away for the long-term. What's more, median inflation - or the year-over-year inflation rate of the median component in the CPI, which the Cleveland Fed says is the best measure of inflation - is still at 6.4%. ![]() This is what the Fed pays attention to most. While CPI is at 3%, core inflation, which takes out the volatile categories of food and energy, is still near 5%. The first piece of evidence that tells Wolfenbarger - a former JPMorgan and Merril Lynch banker, and the founder of Bull And Bear Profits - that a recession is inbound is that inflation is not actually that low. The Consumer Price Index hit 3% in June, and unemployment is still near historically lows at 3.7%.īut a storm is still brewing on the horizon, according to Jon Wolfenbarger, and it's going to spoil any attempt at a soft landing.įasten your seat belts - a bumpy, hard landing awaits. That's the scenario for the US economy at the moment, according to bulls who believe the Federal Reserve is on the verge of bringing down inflation to its long-term target of 2% while sparing the economy from a recession.
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